2010年国内外3种数值预报在东北地区的预报检验

Contrastive verification of three numerical prediction products in the northeast of China in 2010

对中国国家气象中心T639数值预报、德国降水预报和欧洲中心(ECMWF)数值预报中对中国东北地区降水、温度和环流模式的预报结果,分别进行检验。结果表明:降水预报中,德国降水预报对中国东北地区的晴雨预报、一般性降水预报效果较好,但T639数值预报的漏报率低于德国降水预报,而T639数值预报中24—120 h暴雨预报的TS评分明显高于德国降水预报。温度预报中,T639数值预报对中国东北地区温度预报72 h内基本可用;ECMWF数值预报在96 h内效果较好。对于24 h的温度预报准确率,T639数值预报稍高于ECMWF数值预报。环流模式方面:48 h内T639预报效果好于ECMWF,72 h以后ECMWF预报效果好于T639。

The application results from three numerical weather prediction models in the northeast of China were verified and these include T639 from the national meteorological center of China,the Germany precipitation forecast and the European center for medium-range weather forecasts（ECMWF）.The results indicated that for precipitation,the forecast effect of the Germany model is good in the northeast of China,but the missing rates of T639 are lower than that of Germany model.TS score of T639 to 24-120 h rainstorm prediction is also higher than that of Germany model.For temperature,the forecast effect of T639 within 72 h is available in the northeast China,and that of ECMWF within 96 h is good.The accuracy rates of T639 to 24 h temperature prediction are higher than that of ECMWF.The forecast effect of T639 to circulation model within 48 h is better than that of ECMWF,while the forecast effect of ECMWF beyond 72 h is good.