2007—2008年武汉市空气质量预报及检验

Air quality prediction and verification from 2007 to 2008 in Wuhan

通过开展武汉市空气质量预报研究,研讨武汉市空气质量状况。结果表明:2007—2008年武汉市空气质量优良的出现频率为77.6%,且未出现超过轻度污染的情况,其中夏季空气质量明显好于其他季节。经检验,采用逐步线性回归法建立的预报模型对武汉市空气质量具有一定的预报能力,级别预报准确率为78.1%。统计各级预报准确率发现,此方法较适用于空气质量为Ⅱ级的情况,提出在使用时应结合天气预报和前一日空气质量监测实况对预报结果进行修正。

Air quality prediction in Wuhan was investigated and air quality was analyzed.The results indicated that air quality in Wuhan is mostly fine and never exceeds light pollution level.The frequency of the fine air quality is 77.6% from 2007 to 2008.Air quality is better in summer than in other seasons.The prediction model established by a stepwise regression method has a certain ability to forecast air quality and the prediction accuracy of air quality grade reaches 78.1%.According to the statistics of the prediction accuracy,this model is suitable to predict air quality with Ⅱ grades.It suggests that the prediction results should be modified by the observational value of air quality in the day before and combining weather forecast results.