塔里木河流域人口-经济分布不均衡特征分析

Imbalanced distribution characteristics of population-economy of Tarim Basin,Xinjiang

不均衡性是人口与经济分布最基本的属性,不均衡性过大影响区域经济的协调发展。文章利用地理联系率、Pearson相关系数、基尼系数和崔王指数分析了塔里木河流域人口-经济分布不均衡的时间特征;采用重心模型和人均GDP空间分异特征探讨了人口-经济分布不均衡的空间格局。结果表明:(1)改革开放以来,塔河流域的人口、经济分布匹配程度不断减弱,不均衡特征逐渐显著,区域经济差异已超出警戒线的范围。(2)在空间格局上,经济重心显著向东北方向集中,人口重心基本不变;人口、经济重心转移使和田、喀什、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州三地州逐渐成为贫困人口集聚区,巴音郭楞蒙古自治州的库尔勒市成为经济极化中心。依据增长极理论,塔河流域经济极化中心较单一,增长体系不完善,未来需培育新的极化中心。

Imbalances is the most basic attribute for population and economy distribution,which affects the coordinated development of regional economy if the imbalances are too large.The paper chooses the Tarim River basin for the study,in which the economy is underdeveloped with in the southern Xinjiang.Using geographical relation rate,Pearson correlation coefficient,Gini coefficient and TW index,the paper analyzes the time trend of population-economy＇s imbalance.Using gravity model and spatial pattern of per capita GDP,the paper analyzes imbalanced spatial pattern of population-economy and identifies the specific areas of regional economic development.Finally,it proposes a reasonable policy to optimize distribution of population and economy.The results show as follows：（1） from the view of population-economy＇s matching degree,to investigate issues of regional economic differences is more intuitive and easy to understand.Combining geographical relation rates and Pearson correlation coefficients can get matching indexes of population-economy,and combining Gini coefficients and TW indexes can get indexes of regional economic disparities.The indexes of population-economy have high correlation degrees with the indexes of population-economy,so combining the two indices can provide a new perspective and approach to study regional economic disparities in the future.Combining gravity model and spatial pattern of per capita GDP can clearly identify special areas which population does not match its economy in space,so combining the two to study regional economic disparities in the space is more convincing.（2） Since reforming and opening up of China,the matching degrees between population and economy have been gradually weakened which makes regional economic disparity continue to widen.To 2005,regional economic disparity was beyond the scope of the warning line.（3） In the space,at the beginning of reforming and opening up,population and economic centers of gravity showed a relative match in space.Then the economic center tended towards the northeast,while the population center changed very little in the southwest,which resulted in Hotan,Kashgar and Kizilsu Prefecture becoming the poor concentration zone and Korla City of Bayingolin Prefecture becoming the economic polarization centre.Depending on growth pole theory,economic polarization of the Tarim region is single and the increased system is imperfect,so in the future the new centers need to be cultivated.（4） In the new era,the state begin to implement the new Xinjiang-supporting policies,Xinjiang can seize this opportunity to focus on the following aspects to solve the problems of population-economy＇s imbalance.First,to cultivate Kashi,Aksu City as new growth poles in southern Xinjiang.Second,to enhance the self-development abilities of the backward counties with funding some supports of the policies.Third,relying on technology,to change development approach of resources-based urbanization.Fourth,population and economic development must take into account the ecological carrying capacity in order to ensure sustainable regional development.