重庆城市居住建筑能耗预测模型

Energy consumption forecast model of urban residential buildings in Chongqing

为了研究重庆市居民住宅建筑能耗的影响因素,通过问卷调查匹配居民实际能源消耗,借助SPSS软件,运用相关分析和多元回归分析对影响居民建筑能耗各因素与能耗的关系进行实证研究,得出常住人口、人均建筑面积、制冷空调和电脑台数总和和夏季空调降温方式4个因素与建筑能耗有显著相关性,据此建立居住建筑能耗预测的多元线性回归模型,并运用历年实际能耗消费数据对模型拟合效果进行检验,研究结果表明:模型拟合预测年能耗与实际统计年能耗符合度达95%左右,说明能耗影响模型的预测结果具有较高的预测精度和较好的拟合效果;居住建筑能耗预测模型可为国家区域能源规划、相关能源政策的制定提供有力的数据支持。

To study energy consumption influencing factors of urban residential buildings in Chongqing,on the basis of questionnaires which inquire the actual energy consumption of the target residents,and by means of correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis through SPSS software,an empirical study show that the resident population,per capita floor area,the sum number of air-conditioner and computer and the air conditioning cooling method have impacts on energy consumption of urban residential buildings in Chongqing,based on the influencing factors the multiple linear regression model was drown.The fitting effect was tested with calendar year lystatistics of actual energy consumption;the results show that the model has high accuracy.And energy saving strategies of residential buildings are given out according to the forecast model.