区域间虚拟水贸易模型及其在山西省的应用

Inter-Regional Virtual Water Trade Model and Its Application in Shanxi Province

虚拟水贸易是实现水资源区域优化配置的重要途径之一,对区域间的虚拟水贸易现状进行分析,可为相关政策的制定提供依据。本研究基于区域间贸易模型和各地产业用水系数,构建虚拟水贸易模型,以模拟区域间的虚拟水贸易格局。选取山西省为案例区,利用中国环境统计年鉴、中国第二次经济普查年鉴等相关数据,计算山西省国民经济各部门的直接用水系数和完全用水系数,结合山西省与全国其他省区的贸易关系,估算山西与其他省区的虚拟水贸易量,揭示山西虚拟水贸易的空间格局。主要结论有:①2007年,山西省用水总量为58.71亿m3,通过工农业产品贸易共产生了1.53亿m3的虚拟水净调入量,对本省水资源短缺局面有缓解作用;②通过农业贸易净调入虚拟水4.89亿m3,主要来自于新疆、陕西、河北、安徽等省区;通过工业产品贸易净调出虚拟水3.36亿m3,主要调往河北、江苏、山东、湖北、浙江和广东等省;③山西省虚拟水的来源地主要是我国西部和东北地区,输出地则主要是东部沿海省份,与传统的虚拟水战略相违背;④在工业部门,主要的调出部门是能源相关行业,主要净调入部门则是制造业。建议山西省积极推行虚拟水政策,发展节水产业,通过工农业产品贸易从水资源丰富的地区调入虚拟水,形成具有可持续性的水资源利用空间格局。

Virtual water trade is one of the important ways to achieve spatial optimal allocation of water resources. Analysis of virtual water trade in different regions can provide basis for strategy formulation of water use. Inter-regional virtual water trade model is designed to simulate virtual water trade pattern, which is based on inter-regional trade .model and industrial water consumption coefficient. In this study, Shanxi Province was selected as the case area. We have calculated the direct water use coefficients of industries in Shanxi based on the Chinese Environmental Statistical Yearbook and Almanac of Chinese Second Economic Census, estimated the total amount of virtual water trade of Shanxi and other provinces according to the inter-regional trade relations and revealed the spatial pattern of virtual water trade. The main conclusions are： 1） In 2007, the total amount of water consumption of Shanxi Province was 5.871 billion cubic meters, and 153 million cubic meters of virtual water was imported from other regions of China through industrial and agricultural products trade; 2） Virtual water imported through agricultural trade was 489 million cubic meters, mainly from Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Hebei and Anhui. Virtual water exported to other regions of China through industrial products trade was 336 million cubic meters, mainly to Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Zhejiang and Guangdong; 3） Virtual water sources of Shanxi are west region and northeast region of China while the target areas are mianly east coastal provinces, which goes against the traditional virtual water strategy; 4） The main export sectors of virtual water in Shanxi are energy and energy-related industries, while the main import sectors are agriculture and manufacturing industries. Terefore, we should actively promote virtual water policy in Shanxi Province to form sustainable water use spatial pattern, including developing water saving industries and importing virtual water from other water-rich regions through commodity trade.