基于乘客感知的公交服务可靠性测度模型

Models to Measure Transit Service Reliability from Passengers' Perception

分析了APTS环境下的公交服务特性、乘客出行特性及其相互作用关系。采用多智能体建模方法,对信息条件下乘客的认知方式以及出行行为规则进行了建模,同时构建了模拟公交营运服务过程的仿真模型。基于服务客体对于服务系统的感知及其行为演化,提出了公交服务可靠性测度模型和方法。以上海49路公交线为背景进行了服务可靠性分析,仿真结果显示:相比传统指标而言,提出的感知候车时间与可靠性因子能够更为真实的反应乘客对于公交服务可靠性的感知;运能饱和的情况下,公交服务可靠性对供需匹配状况的敏感度上升迅速;运能非饱和状况下,营运当中合理地采取准点措施,可显著提升公交服务可靠性。

The characteristics of transit service and passengers,and the ways they affected each other were explored.On this basis,the process that passengers cognized transit service,their departure time decision behavior under information condition,and the ways they perceived transit service reliability were modeled.A multi-agent based method of measuring transit service reliability from passengers＇ point of view was proposed based on the day-to-day evolution of passengers＇ cognition.Simulation results show that the proposed indicators are more appropriate in reflecting passengers＇ perception on transit service reliability than traditional indicators do.It is also found that the matching level between service capacity and travel demand also has a significant impact on transit service reliability,especially in over-saturated conditions;the distributions of reliability indexes are compared between operations with and without on-time operating strategies,results of which show that,in unsaturated conditions,on-time strategy improves transit service reliability notably.