人口年龄结构转变与经常项目差额:理论与实证——来自世界135个国家的经验证据

Changes in Population Age Structure and the Current Account Balance:Theory and Empirical Research Based on the Data from 135 Countries

OLG模型在研究国际收支问题时难以求解,而且只适合研究两个国家之间的国际收支问题。本文尝试在Ramsey模型中引入人口年龄结构变量,建立一个新的理论分析框架,并指出采用Ramsey模型刻画人口年龄结构问题的社会现实性。理论分析结论与OLG框架下基本一致,但是本文的分析框架可以直接得出显式结论,大大简化了分析过程。在此基础上,本文基于1990-2010年世界135个国家的跨国面板数据进行了实证分析。主要结论为,劳动年龄人口比重与经常项目差额存在显著的正相关关系,抚养比的提高将恶化经常项目帐户。

The OLG model is hard to get solution when being used to study the balance of International payments,and more suitable to study the balance of payments between two countries.This paper brings population age structure into the Ramsey model and establishes a new theoretical framework to analyze the effect of changes in the population age structure on the current account balance.The theoretic analysis of this framework can bring out the almost same conclusion as that out from the OLG framework,but its conclusion is more visible and simplifies the analytic process.This framework is tested by the panel data from 135 countries between 1990 and 2010.It shows that the proportion of working age population has a remarkably positive correlation with the current account and the increasing dependency ratio will worsen the current account.