中国通货膨胀预期形成机制的探析

A Research on the Mechanism of Inflation Expectation in China

作者通过人民银行发布的《全国储户问卷调查综述》中关于物价预期的原始数据,假定居民的物价判断分别服从差额法、正态分布、均匀分布以及逻辑分布的情况下,分别计算了不同分布下的通胀预期,并对其进行了适应性与理性检验。研究结果表明,通胀预期形成机制的的判断主要取决于我国居民对于物价的预期所服从的分布,这直接影响着我国抑制通胀的手段与策略的选择。

Based on microdata on the survey of saving depositors in China,a resaech is made on the inflation expectations by methods of balance normal distribution probability、uniform distribution probability and losgistic distribution probability.and The formative mechanism of inflation expectations is tested.It is found that the mechanism depends on the distribution of expectation to price,which in turn will affect the measure or policy for the inflation control.