美元、石油和金属价格——基于VAR模型的实证研究

An Empirical Research on US Dollar,Oil and Metal Prices Based on VAR Model

近年来,美元贬值以及石油价格上涨一直被认为是造成有色金属价格上涨的两个可能的原因。在这一背景下,笔者采用VAR模型分析了美元价值和石油价格变化对我国铜、黄金、白银等金属价格的冲击影响,以及在此冲击下三种金属价格间的相互影响关系。结果表明:美元价值以及黄金和白银二者之间的相互影响关系在很大程度上决定了我国黄金和白银的价格行为;而美元、石油、黄金以及白银价格的变化对于我国铜金属价格的冲击尽管是显著的,但是四者均不是铜金属价格上涨的主要原因。

In recent years,it is known that the US dollar depreciation and oil price escalation may account for nonferrous metal price soaring.This paper analyzes the interrelationship amomg nonferrous metal prices,US dollar value and oil price based on VAR models.It is suggested that gold and silver price increase significantly aginst US dollar depreciation.Though the price fluctuation of US dollar,oil,gold and silver may lead to a obvious impact on China＇s copper price,none of them mainly account for China＇s copper price escalation.Measures to avoid metals prices fluctuation caused by external factors is proposed.