基于VAR模型的人力资本与我国服务贸易出口关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Human Capital Influnce on China's Service Trade Export Based on VAR Model

人力资本到底能在多大程度上推动我国服务贸易的出口?目前国内学者对此研究的较少并且存在一定的争议。笔者利用1985年～2010年的时间序列数据进行实证分析,发现我国服务贸易的快速增长产生了对人力资本的长期大量的需求,而我国现存的大量人力资本对服务出口的贡献率却不太显著。因此,切实快速提高我国人力资本的质量是提高我国服务贸易国际竞争力的关键所在。

Based on an empirical analysis of human capital influence on the service trade export,it is found that there is a high demand on human capital with the rapid growth of service trade export whereas the existing human capital in China has a less obvious contribution margin to the growth of service trade.It is a key concern to improve the quality of China＇s human capital to strengthen China＇s international competition in the world service trade.