财政分权与中国省域经济关系的空间计量检验

A Spatial Econometrics Examination on the Relationship between China's Fiscal Decentralization and Provincial Economic Growth

笔者利用2000年～2009年中国省域经济统计数据,借助地理加权回归方法,对财政分权与中国省域经济的关系进行了考察,结果表明:中国省域经济间存在显著空间相关关系。研究中,财政分权与经济之间的二次曲线关系得到了部分证实,但这一关系在不同省份、不同年份间均存在较大差异,从而导致最优财政分权度频繁变化;对于各省而言,确定合理的财政分权度范围,尚需更多未来数据支持。

With the help of geographically weighted regression method,by analyzing China＇s provincial economic statistics data from 2000 to 2009,this paper investigates the relationship between fiscal decentralization and provincial economic growth in China.The result indicates that there is significant spatial correlation among China＇s provincial economy.Although quadri-curve relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth is partly confirmed,it appears obvious difference both in different provinces and different years,which results in frequent change of optimal fiscal decentralization degree.For each province,more data is needed to conform reasonable range of fiscal decentralization degree.