人民币汇率波动对宏观经济运行影响的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations Impact on Macroeconomic Running

笔者采用SVAR方法实证1995年1月至2011年2月人民币汇率波动对宏观经济运行的影响,并论证了汇率冲击的动态传导机制,得出了如下结论:人民币升值总体上不利于净出口和实际产出的增长,并导致在近期和将来货币供应量的不断增长,人民币的升值总体上有利于控制通货膨胀。

The reforms of RMB exchange rate system,implemented in 1994,2005 and 2010,have significant impacts on China＇s macroeconomic.Based on such a background,this paper,with SVAR method empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables during January 1995-February 2011,and the dynamic transmission mechanism of exchange rate shocks.It shows that the appreciation of the RMB gives negative effects to the growth of net export and real output,which leads to an increasing money supply but conducive to controlling inflation in China.A wider floating range,directional floating mechanism,and consumption stimulating policies be proposed to improve the economic effect of RMB appreciation.