神府煤田风沙区采煤塌陷地表环境动态变化的综合评价

Fuzzy Model Assessment on Over-Ground Environment Development of Shenfu Mining Subsidence Area

以神府煤田风沙区2004年塌陷区为研究对象,通过连续7a的野外系统观测,以采煤塌陷后不同塌陷年限(1～7a)的地表破损率、塌陷裂缝残差等8个参数作为指标,利用模糊数学理论建立了风沙区采煤塌陷地表环境变化综合评价模型.计算表明:塌陷1a的地表环境变化综合指数为0.918 4,属开始变化阶段;塌陷2～3a的综合指数为0.731 9～0.635 7,属地表环境加速变化阶段;塌陷4～5a的综合指数为0.404 6～0.316 4,属地表环境减速变化阶段;塌陷6～7a的综合指数为0.281 2～0.264 7,属地表环境变化趋于减速阶段.模型评价结果符合实际情况.

Taking Shenfu mining subsidence area as example,subsided mining area recovery period is statistically investigated.In seven-year field work from 2004 to 2010,the surface breakage rate,residual value in subsidence crannies,and six other parameters are selected as the assessment factors,and a fuzzy model is hence established to assess the over-ground environment development of Shenfu mining subsidence area.Calculation results indicate that： in one year subsidence,the comprehensive index is 0.918 4,suggesting a diversified stage of over-ground environment development;in two to three years,the index is 0.731 9 to 0.635 7,suggesting an accelerated stage;in four to five years,the index is 0.404 6 to 0.316 4,suggesting a transitional stage;and in six to seven years,the index is 0.281 2 to 0.264 7,suggesting a decelerated stage.The simulation coincides with the practice.