地下管道的震害预测模型及随机可靠性分析

An Analysis of the Seismic Damage Forecasting Model of Buried Pipeline and Its Random Reliability

地下管线在地震作用下的变形受到多种复杂因素的影响,具有明显的随机性,影响对其可靠性分析时相关参数的取值.考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,比较了管道随机变量采用不同的概率分布模型对管道抗震可靠性影响的差异,建议管道的允许变形和实际变形分别采用正态分布和极值Ⅰ型分布进行计算.

Buried pipeline＇s deformation under earthquake is influenced by many complicated factors,which features obvious randomness,and thus the value of the relevant parameters in reliability analysis can be affected.With regard to seismic action effect and the randomness of pipe resistance,a probabilistic forecasting model of buried pipeline unit was built in this paper.Then the paper compared the influences of the different probability distribution model that pipeline random variables were used on the aseismic reliability.At the end,the paper suggested that the allowable deformation and the actual deformation of the pipeline should respectively employ normal distribution and extreme I type distribution for calculating.