改进的新灰色模型在边坡变形预测中的运用

Improved New Gray Model and Its Application to Slope Deformation Prediction

通过对边坡表面变形观测系统反馈信息特性的充分认识,采用灰色理论,沿用新陈代谢思想,从优化原理出发,进行逐层推导,得到了具有一定针对性的MAMUGM(1,1,w,η)预测模型,并在工程实例中进行验证,结果表明该模型具有一定模拟和预测精度,对变形非渐变点具有优越的处理能力,通过设置误差限,利用残差控制和样本重构两方面的优化选择,可以使模型能够进一步得到改进,为评估浅表层坡体的稳定提供了依据,具有一定的适用性.

Through the fully understanding of characteristics in the slope surface deformation observation system feedback information,using gray theory,as well as the metabolic concept and basing on the optimization principle,a MAMUGM（1,1,w,η） prediction model has been deduced gradually.This model has the particular pertinence in predicting the slope surface displacement.An engineering example is given to verify the model.The results show that the model has the ability to simulate the true data and predict the future data in precision;at the same time,it has the superior ability to handle the deformation gradient point,by setting up the error limit,taking advantage of the residual error or data sample reconstruction,these two sides choices for optimization,can make sure that the model has the self-control ability so as to improve itself someway.