中国近岸海域环境保护的陆源污染防治政策研究——以排污治理工程投资政策为例

How to Protect Coastal Waters against Land-based Sources of Pollution——A study on the investment decision

控制陆源排污是保护近岸海域生态环境的关键,考虑到船舶溢油、赤潮等突发事件的频繁发生及其带来的巨大的经济损失,陆源排污治理等近岸海域环境保护政策的制定过程中应纳入对这些因素所造成影响的分析,故利用实物期权理论和随机动态优化技术,建立了不确定条件下海洋环境政策时机选择的理论模型,并进行数值模拟求解,对陆源排污治理工程的最优建设规模和投入使用时机进行分析。

Controlling the land-based pollution is the key to protecting coastal waters. Considering the high frequency and big loss of the red tide, oil-spill accident and so on, the protection policy makers should take the uncertainty on the environment and economy into account. This paper uses a real-option model to illustrate an optimal timing problem of building the land-based pollution control project under uncertainty. Also, this paper gives the results of numerical simulation analysis.