北京市“十二五”人均期望寿命预测与分析

Forecasting and analysis of life expectancy for residents during the twelfth five year period in Beijing

目的:预测"十二五"期间北京市人均期望寿命,描述其变化趋势,为政策分析提供依据。方法:利用北京市卫生局公布的北京市2003—2010年人均期望寿命数据,应用一阶自回归模型,对"十二五"期间北京市人均期望寿命进行预测。结果:在本研究模型的既定水平下,2015年北京市人均期望寿命预测值为81.73岁,低于预期目标值0.1岁左右,预测值的90%可信区间为[81.13,82.33]岁,相比预期目标值上限预测值则较为乐观。结论:近年来北京市人均期望寿命的增长趋缓已进入平台期,"十二五"期间人均增长1岁的目标基本可以实现,未来应当重视健康期望寿命的研究与应用。

Objective：This paper focuses on the forecasting of life expectancy for residents during the twelfth five year period in order to provide a policy analysis evidence based on dynamic change trend of life expectancy in Beijing.Methods：Make a use of the capital residents＇ life expectancy statistic data in the period 2003-2010 from the Beijing Public Health Information Center to establish a first order auto-regressive model by Eviews 6.0 and forecast life expectancy of capital residents based on the model in the next 5 years.Result：According to auto-regressive model under the given level,the predicted life expectancy of residents in Beijing will reach 81.73 years in 2015,lower than the instructive target about 0.1 years.The 90% confidence interval of the predicted value ranges from 81.13 years to 82.33 years and the upper limit is optimistic.Conclusion：In Beijing,life expectancy of residents increasing slow down and entered a comparatively smooth developing period in recent years.However,life expectancy increased by 1 year（from 80.81 to 81.81） still can be expected to reach during the twelfth five year period.There should be paid more attention to the research and application of healthy life expectancy in the future.