基于模糊数学的公路交通量预测方法

The Method of Traffic Volume forecast Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

在交通量资料少、规律性不强的情况下,设计年限内平均日交通量和交通量年平均增长率两个参数不容易直接确定,而相关参数如人口、经济、汽车保有量等与之相关性有不同的权重。针对于此,主要利用模糊数学和线性规划的有关理论,通过模糊预测模型对某地区的交通量进行预测,并根据不同的影响因素,采用不同的权重对其进行交通量分配。实例分析表明,该方法更加客观、合理,具有一定的应用价值。

Without enough traffic volume data and no strong regulation,the average daily traffic volume and the yearly growth rate on traffic volume during the design yeas are not easy to certain directly.As well,some related parameters,such as the population,the economy and the automobile retention quantity etc,have different important proportions.So,under relevant theories of the fuzzy mathematics and the line programming,we used fuzzy forecast model to forecast the traffic volume.And then according to different factors,we distributed the traffic volume using different important proportions.The analysis of an example shows that the method is more objective and reasonable,and has certain application value.