城市自然灾害综合风险评估问题研究

Research on Integrated Risk Evaluation on Urban Natural Disaster

考虑到城市自然灾害综合风险评估过程的繁琐,提出一种基于事例推理(case-based reason ing,CBR)思想的风险评估方法。从风险所具有和所代表的不确定性入手,将城市灾害综合风险看作是基于危险性和易损性的不确定系统,先基于集对理论做先前事例的风险评估,得出风险值后,形成案例库,再利用可变模糊聚类方法做关于综合风险评估结果的CBR前期处理,形成有利于快速检索的事例样本结构,并在CBR循环过程中通过融入或修正新案例形成新的事例样本,如此往复,不断补充、扩容事例数量和多样性,达到简化风险评估过程和准确化风险评估结果的目的。通过某地区风险评估实例,证明了该方法的有效性。

Considering the complexity of the process of integrated risk evaluation on urban natural disaster,the authors propose a method for risk evaluation based on case-based reasoning.Paying more attention on the uncertainty,it takes the integrated risk as a uncertain system comprising hazard and vulnerability to get the risk values from set pair calculation,which would be considered as forward examples.The variable fuzzy cluster method is used to process the risk results for CBR to get a new sample structure which is good for quick retrieve.Some revised examples become new samples through circulation,and the number and variety will of sample increase.The above process will simplify the risk evaluation and obtain more accurate result.The paper finally verifies the method through an example.