珠江广州段沉积物中PAHs生态风险的蒙特卡洛模拟

Monte Carlo simulations of ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediments from the Guangzhou reach of the Pearl River

以珠江广州段24个采样站位表层沉积物的实测16种多环芳烃(PAHs)浓度为基础资料,采用基于Logistic混沌迭代序列改进的蒙特卡洛算法对珠江广州段沉积物中PAHs的生态风险发生概率进行了定量分析.研究结果表明:PAHs风险排序从大到小依次是:菲>芘>荧蒽>>苯并[a]蒽>苯并[a]芘>二苯并[a,h]蒽.菲、芘和荧蒽引发水生生态风险概率较大,应重点关注.除菲外,其余6种PAHs暴露浓度对生态风险发生概率的贡献率均超过90%,可见PAHs在本区域环境中的风险大小主要取决于其暴露量.

Based on concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons（PAHs） measured in the surface sediment samples collected from 24 locations along the Guangzhou reach of the Pearl River,Monte Carlo simulation method modified with the Logistic chaotic iterative sequence was used to analyze the ecological risk probabilities of PAHs in the sediments.Results showed that the risks of seven PAH species were in the order of phenanthrene pyrene fluoranthene chrysene benzo（a）anthracene benzo（a）pyrene dibenzo（a,h）anthracene.It should be paid more attention that phenanthrene,pyrene,and fluoranthene could pose higher ecological risks for aquatic organisms.In addition,except phenanthrene,the contributions to the total ecological risk of the exposure concentrations of the other six PAHs were all over 90%,indicating that the ecological risk of the PAHs in this region was determined by the exposure concentrations.