我国通货膨胀决定因素的计量分析

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in China

本文就我国总需求因素、货币因素和生产成本因素对通货膨胀的影响进行计量研究。通过测算菲利普斯曲线的动态变化,本文认为产出缺口对我国通货膨胀的影响呈现稳定下降的趋势,这说明总需求对我国通货膨胀的拉动效应在减小。本文选择了对通货膨胀具有重要影响的货币因素和产品购进价格因素,利用NBER方法分别计算合成指数,并将得到的合成指数与反映工资成本的指标共同引入扩展的菲利普斯曲线中,模型计算结果表明,货币因素和生产成本对物价具有显著的推动效应。因此,本文认为,在2011年紧缩的货币政策背景下,产品购进价格尤其是工资成本的上升是通货膨胀率居高不下的决定性原因。

This paper analyses the effects of aggregate demand factors,monetary factors and production cost factors on China＇s inflation.We calculate the dynamic Philips curve and argue that the effect of the output gap on price tends to decline,implying that the pulling effect of the aggregate demand decreases.This paper selects monetary factors and purchasing price of goods and,by the NBER method,calculates the composite index.Then,we introduce them,together with the indicator reflecting wage cost,into the expanded Philips curve and the results show that the pushing effects of the monetary factors and production costs are significant.Thus,this paper argues that,under today＇s circumstance of tight monetary policy in China,the determined reasons of the current high inflation are the rises of purchasing price of goods especially the wage cost.