低碳视角下中国非常规天然气的开发利用前景

Development and utilization prospects of unconventional natural gas in China from a low-carbon perspective

在对美国非常规天然气产业规模化利用研究的基础上,全面分析了中国非常规天然气资源的地质条件和开发状况,并从资源评价、勘探开发和配套政策三方面剖析了制约中国非常规天然气产业快速发展的主要因素。基于中国在实现低碳转型中所面临的能源利用效率低、供应不足以及碳排放强度大等诸多挑战,依据国际能源署(IEA)在"新政策"情景和"天然气黄金时代"情景关于中国到2035年能源结构的预测,对比分析美国非常规天然气开发利用成果,提出在低碳视角下的"强化非常规天然气"情景。在该情景下,中国非常规天然气产业将迎来超常规发展时期,到2035年,非常规天然气将成为天然气重要的接替能源,实现对煤炭资源的大幅度替代,能源消耗结构得到优化,低碳能源体系基本形成,温室气体排放速度明显减缓。

Based on the study of the large-scale utilization of unconventional natural gas in the United States,geological conditions and development situations of unconventional gas resources in China were investigated thoroughly,and main factors influencing the unconventional natural gas development in China were addressed from the resource evaluation,exploration technology and governmental policy aspects.In view of severe challenges currently met in the energy sector of China,such as low energy efficiency,scarce energy supply and high carbon emission,an ＂Extraordinary Unconventional Natural Gas Scenario＂ was constructed from the perspective of low-carbon development based on the forecast by ＂The New Policy Scenario＂ and ＂The Golden Age of Gas Scenario＂ from International Energy Agency（IEA）.It is estimated under this scenario that China will achieve an extraordinary development in the unconventional natural gas industry by 2035,which will become an important alternative to the conventional gas energy.Hence,coal resources will be greatly replaced,the energy consumption structure will be optimized further,a low-carbon energy system will be basically formed and the greenhouse gas emission will decelerate significantly.