南水北调中线工程核心水源区水安全模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Security in Central Water Source Area of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

南水北调中线核心水源区主要在湖北省十堰市境内,其水源区水质基本达到调水要求,但水土流失、水体污染、移民安置、贫困与落后等水安全问题直接关乎到调水的质量、水资源的配置及社会、经济和生态环境的可持续发展,因此,水源区的水安全评价已是当务之急。针对水安全内涵及其评价的复杂性和模糊性,在选取20个代表性指标及建立评价指标体系的基础上,采用多层次模糊综合评判的方法,对南水北调中线工程核心水源区的十堰市水安全进行了定量的评价。结果表明:自南水北调中线工程实施以来,水源区的水安全处在一个基本安全的临界等级状态,这一结论与主成分分析所得评价结果具有较好的一致性,经验证方法可行、结论可靠。

The central water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is mainly located m Shiyan City of Hubei Province, and the water quality of this area basically meets the water transfer requirements. However, the water security problems, such as the soil and water loss, water pollution, immigration allocation, and the poverty and backwardness, can affect the quality of water transfer, the water resources allocation, and the sustainable development of society, economy and ecological environment. Therefore, the evaluation of water security in the water source area is urgent. Due to the complexity and fussiness of the meaning and evaluation of water security, a multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which is based on the selection of 20 representative indexes and the development of the index system,is used to provide a quantitative assessment of the water security in the central water source area of Shiyan City located in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The results show that the water security of the water source area has been in a critical state of basicfety since the implementation of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, which is consistent with the results ob- tained from the principal component analysis. Therefore, the method is feasible and it can provide a reliable conclusion.