可保性边界拓展与保险业发展

Extension of Insurability Frontiers and Development of Insurance

全球保险业,尤其是产险业正面临着一系列的难题:对众多风险不敢承保、核心业务连年亏损、业务创新累受重创、资本运作遭遇失败。纯粹风险并不是可保性的必要条件,保险人可以承保部分投机风险,包括其正侧与负侧风险;大数定律只是指导保险经营最重要的,而非唯一的原理,更非原则;集聚能降低风险,对冲也能降低风险;通过指数化、结构化,保险产品能够拥有较高的流动性,实现与资本市场的对接;保险语境下的风险应从损失的不确定性拓展到损失与收益的不确定性,以体现全面风险管理的时代趋势。

Global insurance industry, especially property insurance is facing with series of troubles, such as non-insurability of many risks, non-profitability of core lines, failure of investment, and setback in innovation. This paper finds that pure risk is not the pre-condition of insurability; speculative risks are insurable too, including both upside risk and downside risk. The law of large numbers is one of the most important guidelines, but never the only one, and can be transcended. Not only risk pooling but also risk offsetting can de risk, selecting which one lies in cost and efficiency. Lines of insurance can be re-struc- tured and standardized to enhance their mobility and to join in the capital market, the concept of risk should be expanded from the uncertainty of loss to the uncertainty of loss and gain to manifest its double sides.