基于信息扩散理论的长江中下游地区高温热害风险分析

Risk Analysis of the High Temperature Heat Damage in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Based on Information Diffusion

基于长江中下游地区85个站点1961-2008年水稻减产率,采用基于信息扩散理论的信息分配方法,研究长江中下游地区水稻高温热害风险的年代际变化和空间分布。结果表明,20世纪60年代风险值相对较小,高温热害发生较少,2000年以后风险值较大,灾情较重,高温热害风险的变化呈增加的趋势。发生高温热害风险较大的地区主要位于研究区的安徽、浙江、湖北西部和东部以及江西东北部和中部地区。其中,浙江丽水和湖北宜昌地区风险值都超过了0.25;江苏东南部、湖南西南和东北部地区属于高温热害风险较低的地区。

Based on the reduction rate of rice from 1961 to 2008 of 85 production sites in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River region, using the information distribution method based on information diffusion theory, the paper analyzes the interdeeadal variation and spatial distribution of the risk of high temperature heat damage in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River region. The result shows that the risk value is lower relatively in 1960s and the occurrence of high temperature is less, and the risk value is high and damage is heavier after 2000. The tendency of the risk of high temperature heat damage is more serious with time variation. Greater risk of high temperature heat damage regions are mainly located in the study area, such as Anhui, Zhejiang, western and eastern Hubei, and northeastern and central Jiangxi. The risk value of Lishui and Yichang is more than 0.25 ; the risk of the regions such as southeastern Jiangsu, southwestern and northeastern Hunan is lower than that of other regions.