基于土地利用结构变化的芜湖市碳排放及其影响因素研究

Research on Carbon Emissions and Influence Factors in Wuhu City Based on the Change of Land Use Structure

碳排放与土地利用密切相关,土地利用可以造成直接碳排放和间接碳排放。为了分析土地利用结构变化的碳排放效应,该文计算得出芜湖市2000—2010年主要土地利用方式的碳排放总量,并利用回归函数进行STIRPAT模型拟合,进一步研究了影响碳排放量的主要因素,最后提出低碳的土地利用对策。结果表明:(1)2000—2010年期间,芜湖市碳排放量呈现快速增长的趋势,年均增长率达到15.17%。其中,建设用地和林地分别为主要的碳源和碳汇。(2)碳排放量与人口、经济增长关系的相关性显著,其中人口对碳排放的解释作用最大,人口每增加1%,碳排放量相应的增加8.726%。

Land use is closely related to carbon emissions, which can cause direct and indirect carbon emissions. In order to analyze the effects of land use structure on carbon emission, in this study, we calculated the overall carbon emissions of Wuhu City from 2000 to 2010, which was influenced by different land use pat- terns. Furthermore, liner regression function was used for STIRPAT model fitting based on calculated re sults, and the influence factors of carbon emissions were further discussed. Finally, some suggestions were put forward to reduce carbon emissions in land use. The results indicated that- （1） the total carbon emissions increased gradually with an average growth rate of 15.17% per annum over the years 2000-2010. The con- struction land and forest land were the main carbon sources and sink, respectively; （2） the model fitting for the carbon emissions versus population and economic growth was remarkably related. The population was the major cause of carbon emissions, the carbon emissions would correspondingly increase by 8. 726% with every 1% of population growth.