中国体育事业财政投入与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于1977～2010年的时间序列数据分析

Empirical Study of Sports Financial Investment and Economic Growth in China——Based on the 1977 to 2010 Time Series Data Analysis

基于1977～2010年的时间序列数据,采用单位根检验、协整关系检验及VAR模型等计量方法,对中国体育事业财政投入与经济增长的长期均衡和短期动态关系进行实证分析。结果表明:体育事业财政投入和经济增长的原始序列是非平稳的,属一阶单整(I1)序列。二者间存在长期均衡关系,体育事业财政投入对经济增长的长期弹性为0.8959。二者之间的短期非均衡状态逐渐向长期均衡状态趋近,体育事业财政投入对经济增长的短期弹性为-0.1058。体育事业财政投入是经济增长的Granger原因,二者间存在单向因果关系。短时期内体育事业财政投入和经济增长之间的"互促共进"效应未必立竿见影,但从长期来看,两者是能够实现互动融合发展的。经济增长除受自身波动冲击的影响外,一定程度上还受体育事业财政投入的影响,同时体育事业财政投入受经济增长的冲击效应也较明显。

Based on the 1977 to 2010 time-series data, using the unit root test, cointegration test and VAR model, the long run equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship of sports financial investment and economic growth in China was empirically analyzed. The results show that the original sequence of sports financial investment and eco- nomic growth are non-stationary, which is a whole order one I（1） sequence. They are cointegrated, and the elastici- ty is 0.8959. The short-term non-equilibrium state gradually approaches to the long-run equilibrium. The elasticity for sports financial investment to economic growth is -0.1058. Sports financial investment granger causes economic growth. The ＂promoted by each other＂ effect between sports financial investment and economic growth may not be immediate in a short period time, but in the long run, they are able to achieve interactive integration development. Except for its own fluetuation, Economic growth, to some extent, is also affected by the sports financial investment, which is apparently affected by economic growth.