探析经济增长与保持草原生态——基于EKC理论的实证分析

DOES ECONOMIC GROWTH BENEFIT GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS

经济增长是否有利与草原生态的保持是学术界长期关注的重要课题之一。该文在环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说的基础上,对中国草原生态问题与经济增长之间关系进行研究。文章首先测算出我国1978～2009年的草地生态足迹,然后通过广义差分法对EKC模型进行回归分析,结果表明,草原生态压力与经济增长呈现倒N型关系,但在实际观察值范围内,二者正处于倒U型曲线的上升阶段,目前仍未跨过环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点的位置。这说明经济增长在一定程度上有利于缓解草原生态压力,但要改变其总体恶化的趋势,还需通过积极的政策响应来实现。

This paper studied the relationship between grassland ecosystems and economic growth on the basis of Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） hypothesis. It first calculated the pasture ecological footprint of China from 1978 to 2009, and then regression analyzed EKC functions in logarithmic specifications using Generalized Difference Method. The results showed that an inverted -N -shaped relationship between grassland ecological pressure and per capita GDP was shown in the empirical studies. However, both were still in the increasing part of U - shaped, which had not reached the turning point of EKC. Therefore, economic growth is conducive to mitigate the pressure of grassland ecosystems to some extent . positive policy and measurement should be made to improve the trend of the overall deterioration in grassland.