2012-2013年中国宏观经济预测与分析

China's Macroeconomy in 2012-2013: Forecast and Analysis

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组基于最新发布的中国宏观经济季度数据调整并估计CQMM,预测2012年和2013年中国宏观经济运行趋势。预测结果表明,中国GDP增速2012年可能下滑至8.59%,2013年可能回升至9.03%。预计2012年全年CPI将上涨3.33%,同比下降2.18个百分点,2013年CPI有可能回升至4.45%,课题组模拟了将50%的社会保险缴费还给居民对中国经济可能产生的影响。结果显示,GDP增长率将稳中略升,居民消费占GDP的比例显著提高,与此同时投资增速放缓,固定资本形成总额占GDP比重下降,在短期会提高物价水平,但长期影响趋弱。因此,以社会保险缴费返还的方式加大转移支付力度,可以直接增加居民收入,在稳定增长的同时,调节、优化社会总需求结构。当前,我国可通过国有垄断企业利润的再分配来实现社会保险缴费返还,并同时保证社会保险资金的正常运转。

Based on the newly released China＇s quarterly data, the project team of ＂China＇s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model （ CQMM ）＂ adjusts and estimates CQMM to forecast China~ c trend in 2012 and 2013 The forecast shows that China＇ s GDP growth speed is likely to decline to 8.59% in 2012 and climb to 9.03% in 2013. The forecast indicates that the CPI in 2012 is expected to rise by 3.33%, a decline by 2.18% from the previous year and in 2013 the CPI may rise to 4.45%. A simtdation is conducted to predict the possible impact of China＇s economy by giving 50% of social insurance fee back to the residents. The restdts indicate that the GDP growth rate will be stable and slightly rising, and the residents＇ consumption share of GDP will be significantly increased. Meanwhile, the investment growth will slow down, and the proportion of the gross amount of fixed assets in GDP will drop. This may have a short-term impact to push up prices but the impact will decrease in the long run. Therefore, returning the social insurance fee can directly in- crease transferred payments and the income of residents and helps to adjust and optimize the total social demand structure while maintaining a steady growth of residents ＇ income. It is suggested that at present social insurance fee can be returned by redistributing China ＇ s state-owned monopolies ＇ profits thereby ensuring the normal operation of social insurance funds at the same time.