人力资本外流视角下的区域经济增长——基于武汉市的实证分析

Regional Economic Growth from Perspective of Human Capital Outflow——A Case Study in Wuhan City

通过对武汉市1953—2009年期间的经济增长、初级人力资本、中级人力资本和高级人力资本的向量自回归、协整检验和格兰杰因果分析,发现经济增长和人力资本之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,初级人力资本和中级人力资本的外流阻碍了武汉的经济增长;但没有发现高级人力资本的外流也阻碍了武汉的经济增长,相反,计量结果表明高级人力资本的外流推动了武汉的经济增长,可能是因为政府受到压力改进了服务。其政策含义是,对各层次人力资本的外流应区别对待,有针对性地制定相应的政策和措施。

Through the analysis on economic growth, vector autoregressive model （VAR） of primary human capital, secondary human capital and advanced human capital , cointegration test and granger causality test in Wuhan from 1953 to 2009, this paper discovers that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between economic growth and human capital, the outflows of primary and secondary human capital undermine economic growth in the city of Wuhan. However , there is no relevant evidence to show that advanced human capital outflows hinder economic growth in the econometric sense, on the contrary, it is found that the outflows of advanced human capital have promoted economic growth in Wuhan city, because the governments are under the pressure to improve their services. Therefore, out-flows of human capital at different levels should be treated differently, then appropriate policies and measures can be made accordingly.