俄罗斯对华直接投资与中俄贸易的关系研究——基于协整分析与误差修正模型的实证分析

The Study of Relationship between Russian Direct Investment in China and Sino-Russia Trade Based on Cointegration Ananlysis and Error Correction Model

选取1992年—2009年的中国对俄出口贸易额和对俄进口贸易额作为被解释变量,俄罗斯对华直接投资存量作为解释变量,运用协整分析方法和误差修正模型,考察俄罗斯对华直接投资对中俄进出口贸易的短期和中长期影响。结果表明:长期来看,俄罗斯对华直接投资与中国对俄出口和进口贸易之间存在互补关系;短期来看,俄罗斯对华直接投资与中国对俄出口和进口贸易之间存在替代关系;无论长期还是短期,俄罗斯对华直接投资与中国对俄出口贸易和进口贸易之间均具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系。

Russia always is an important trade partner of China.The bilateral trade has enormous potentiality and the cross-border investment is becoming more and more active.It pushes forward the reinforcement of Sino-Russian cooperation in trade and economy.The rapid improvement of scale and quality in Sino-Russian investment is positive for the bilateral trade.The contrastive analysis indicates that Russian direct investment in China and Sino-Russian trade are linked tightly.Sino-Russian cooperation in trade and economy can be promoted to a higher grade through understanding the relationship between them.Taking the exports and imports to Russia from 1992 to 2009 as dependent variables and Russian direct investment stock as independent variables,cointegration ananlysis and error correction model are used to explore the short-run and medium to long-run effect of Russian direct investment on Sino-Russian trade.The results indicate that Russian direct investment stock has complementary relationship on the export and import to Russia in the long term,but substitution relationship in the short term.No matter in long term or short term,there is pronounced two-way Granger causality between Russian direct investment in China and Sino-Russia trade.