限制性生产下的修正乘数分析

Analysis on the Modified Multiplier of Restrictive Production

通过乘数分析可以研究单个部门的最终需求变化对整个经济系统总的影响。通常的乘数分析是建立在没有生产限制的基础之上,如果政策制定者在乎生产的限制对于经济的影响,那么就有必要进一步深入分析修正的乘数。介绍了利用线性规划计算修正的乘数,并利用中国2007年投入产出表进行了实证分析。

Through the multiplier analysis,input-output analysis can analyzes the effect of one sector＇s final demand change to the whole economic system.Usually multipliers analysis is established on the basis without restriction of production,if policy makers care about production constraints to economic influence,then there is need for further analyzing of modified multiplier.This paper introduces the use of linear programming to calculate modified multipliers,and uses input-output table of China of 2007 to make empirical analysis.