奥运会400m成绩发展趋势及灰色预测研究

A study on the trend and gray prediction of the Olympic 400m performance

运用灰色模型方法,建立了从第20-29届奥运会400m比赛最好成绩的等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型,结果显示,从总的趋势看,奥运会400m比赛成绩呈上升趋势。在此基础上,利用等维灰数递补GM(1,1)预测模型,给出了奥运会400m比赛成绩的预测模型和第30届奥运会预测成绩,旨在为决策者制定400m的训练计划提供依据。

By using the methods of grey model,this article establishes equal-dimension gray filling model about the best performances of Olympic 400m during the 20th to the 29th Olympic Games.The results show that the general trend is on the rise.Based on GM（1,1）,this article gives the prediction model of Olympic 400m performance and the 30th Olympic Games prediction performance,and provides some references for the decision makers to make 400 m training plan.