短时临近预报系统在广东一次强对流天气过程中的检验分析

Performance Verification for Two Nowcast Systems in a Convective Weather Event in Guangdong

利用综合临近预报系统"雨燕"SWIFT和雷暴自动识别和追踪系统TRACER两个短时临近系统在广东一次强降水过程的实际应用情况进行检验,分析了雷达回波强度、范围、移动方向和QPF预报及弓形回波的预报效果。就TRACER和SWIFT两个短时临近预报系统对这次过程的回波和降水预报进行了逐时对比检验,研究发现在大部分时间内TRACER预报强度偏弱、范围偏小;SWIFT强度偏强、范围偏大。降水预报TRACER略偏小,而SWIFT明显偏大。通过QQ图检验,降水较小时,TRACER实用性强于SWIFT;降水较大时,SWIFT强于TRACER。

Verifications for two nowcast systems of SWIFT and TRACER were conducted during a convective weather event in Guangdong. The hourly forecast performance for radar reflectivity, coverage, moving direction of echo, the quantitative pre- cipitation forecast （QPF） and the bow echo are studied. The results show that in the most of the time TRACER （SWIFT） has weaker （stronger） forecast in intensity and （smaller） larger forecast in coverage. As for QPF, TRACER is slightly lower than observation and SWIFT is obviously higher than observation. A conclusion could be drawn from Q - Q plot that during small precipitation period, TRACER is more appliable but during heavy precipitation period, SWIFT would be a better choice.