海上钻井平台安全风险预警模型应用研究

Study on application of safety risk early warning model for offshore drilling platform

2010年美国墨西哥湾"深水地平线"钻井平台爆炸和2011年我国蓬莱钻井平台井涌事故,引发社会各界对海上钻井平台安全问题的关注。介绍了海洋钻井平台的组成结构,对海洋钻井平台的危险源进行了系统辨识,试图通过对海上钻井平台作业现场的危险因素加以观察,诊断、分析警源、警情,警兆,警级,结合专家意见,从人员、设施设备、安全管理、工程地质、海上环境等几个方面建立海上钻井平台安全风险预警体系,采用改进的层次分析法,得出指标权重,构建海洋钻井平台安全风险预警模型,得到量化的预警结果。并通过对某钻井平台的实例分析,提出安全风险的预控对策,以期本模型对海上钻井平台的事故的发生起到一定的防范作用。

The safety of offshore drilling platform was concerned by social public after ＂deep water horizon＂ drilling platform explosion in the gulf of Mexico in 2010 and well kick of Penglai drilling platform in 2011 in China. In this paper the composition structure of offshore drilling platform was introduced, and the hazards were systematically identified. By observing the risk factors of work site on the offshore drilling platform, it was attempted to diagnosis and analysis alert source, alert condition, warning signs, and alert level. Combining the expert opinions, from several aspects were staff, facilities, safety management, engineering and geology, Marine environment and so on, a safety risk early warning system of offshore drilling platform was established, the improved AHP method was applied to obtain the index weight. The quantitative security risk warning results were obtained by the constructed security risk early warning model. Through the analysis on the example of a drilling platform, an example about drilling platform was cited to count the value of platform safety risk of total early warning. The primary index, level 2 index of the early warning, through the value it can analyze the potential risk, find out the cause, and prevent the happening of the accident. Some suggestions of the safety risk control measures were put forward aiming at the example of a drilling platform analyzed. So this model has certain prevention role to offshore drilling platform of accidents