药柱结构非概率可靠性分析的响应面法

Response surface method of non-probabilistic reliability analysis of solid propellant grain

根据药柱不确定参量的特点和基于区间分析的非概率可靠性方法,提出了基于均匀设计思想的药柱结构非概率可靠性分析的响应面法。同时,针对二次多项式响应面函数对边界点附近拟合效果相对较差的问题,提出适当扩大原变量区间进行抽样计算的措施。算例表明,该方法在保证计算精度前提下所需的抽样次数较少,且无需迭代,大大降低了药柱非概率可靠性分析的复杂程度,为试验数据较少情况下药柱结构可靠性评估提供了一种有效的分析方法。

According to the characteristic of the uncertain parameters of the solid propellant grain and the non-probabilistic reliability method based on the interval analysis,the response surface method based on the uniform design was presented.Moreover,considering the low fitting precision of quadratic polynomial function around boundary point,the method was presented,in which the samples were acquired in the enlarged intervals of variables.The numerical example shows that this method needs less samples and need not the iteration satisfying the enough result precision,which greatly reduce the complexity of non-probabilistic reliability analysis of solid propellant grain.Also it gives an effective method to analyze the reliability of solid propellant grain with small amount of experimental data.