应用两级催化模型分析广西两县华支睾吸虫病的流行状况

Using a two-stage catalytic model on the survey of current epidemic status of Clonorchis sinensis in Bingyang and Shangling county,Guangxi

目的了解广西宾阳县和上林县华支睾吸虫病的流行状况。方法采用随机抽样法选取调查对象,使用改良加藤法查华支睾吸虫虫卵;应用两级催化模型对人群华支睾吸虫感染情况进行分析。结果宾阳县和上林县人群华支睾吸虫感染率分别为82.90%(286/354)和40.06%(135/337),前者感染率明显高于后者,差异有统计学意义(χ2=1.203,P<0.005)。宾阳县和上林县人群华支睾吸虫感染率的两级催化模型曲线方程分别为y=1.05(e-0.006t-e-0.1225t)和y=1.83(e-0.0125t-e-0.0275t)。宾阳县a、b值分别为:a=0.122 5,b=0.006;上林县a、b值分别为:a=0.027 5,b=0.012 5。宾阳县各年龄组实际与理论感染率差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);上林县除10～19岁组外,各年龄组实际与理论感染率差异无统计学意义,两级催化曲线拟合良好。结论应用两级催化模型能很好地拟合宾阳和上林县人群华支睾吸虫病的流行状况,广西宾阳县和上林县均属重度流行区,宾阳县的传播速度大于上林县。

Objective To investigate the current epidemic status of Clonorchis sinensis infection in Bingyang and Shangling counties in Nanning,Guangxi.Methods Subjects were selected by random sampling.Fecal examination was carried out with modified Kato-katz method for eggs.The status of infection was analyzed by using two-stage catalytic model.Results The infection rates of the Clonorchis sinensis in Bingyang and Shangling counties were 82.90%（286 / 354）and 40.06%（135 / 337）,respectively.There was a significant difference between the two counties（χ 2 =1.203,P0.005）.The equation of twostage catalytic model for Bingyang and Hengxian counties was y=1.05（e-0.006t-e-0.1225t）and y=1.83（e-0.0125t-e-0.0275t）,respectively.Value a and value b in Bingyang was 0.122 5 and 0.006,respectively.Value a and value b in Shangling was 0.027 5 and 0.012 5,respectively.The result of infection rate in these two counties in each age group by chi-square test was similar.The curve of two-stage catalytic model fitting is good.Conclusion The two-stage catalytic model can predict the current status of Clonorchis sinensis infection in Bingyang and Shangling counties.Both Bingyang and Shangling counties belong to severe endamic areas.The spread of Clonorchis sinensis in Bingyang county was quicker than in Shangling county.