中国农村居民口粮消费研究

Household Consumption Research of Staple Grains in Rural China

中国粮食安全尤其是口粮安全问题引起人们广泛的关注。为研究农村居民口粮消费与经济因素的关系,探讨家庭收入和价格变化对中国农村居民口粮消费的影响,以及价格变化对口粮间的消费替代研究,本文对全国2003—2009年的省级农村消费数据进行了整理,采用非参数估计方法,确定AIDS消费模型的类型,并得到了口粮消费的自价格弹性、互价格弹性、支出弹性等。结果发现,随着收入的上涨,居民倾向消费更多的是水稻;小麦和水稻之间有较强的替代性。农村居民收入的增长,将推动口粮消费的变化,尤其促进水稻消费增长,因此文章最后提出了,优先重视发展水稻生产的建议。

Food security,especially the security of staple grains for household consumption has always received extensive attention.This paper collected the provincial rural consumption data in 2003—2009,determined demand model,and got the own-price elasticity,cross price elasticity,and expenditure elasticity using the no-parameter estimation method.The results showed that household consumption of staple grains would tend to consume more rice with the expenditure increase,and wheat and rice would have more impossibility to replace each other.In the end,the authors suggested the food producing policy should pay attention to the development of rice production.