北京市大气可吸入性颗粒物污染对居民死亡影响的时间序列分析

Time-series analysis of ambient PM10 pollution on residential mortality in Beijing

目的探讨北京市大气PM10污染对居民非意外死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡及呼吸系统疾病死亡的短期影响。方法2005-2009年北京市居民死亡数据来自中国CDC公其卫生监测与信息服务中心，同期北京市大气PM10、SO2和NO2的日平均浓度数据分别来自北京市环保局（2005-2006年）和北京环保公众网（2007-2009年），气象数据来自中国气象科学数据共享网。采用时间序列的广义相加Poisson回归模型，在控制长期趋势、星期几效应、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上，定量分析北京市城区2005-2009年大气PM10污染对居民每天死亡水平的影响及其滞后效应。结果2005-2009年北京市居民日均非意外死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡、心恼血管疾病死亡例数分别为140．1、15．0和65．8例，同期大气PM10、SO2、NO2日均浓度的中位数分别为123．0、26．0和58．0μg／m^3，平均气压为10．1kPa，平均气温为13．5℃，平均相对湿度为51．9％。广义相加Poisson同归模型显示，大气PM10每升高10μg／m^3，居民当灭非意外死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡和心脑血管疾病死亡分别增加0．1267％（95％CI：0．0824％-0．1710％）、0．1365％（95％CI：0．0010％-0．2720％）和0．1239％（95％CI：0．0589％-0．1889％），居民5d后呼吸系统疾病死亡增加最明显。结论北京市夫气PM10污染可导致居民非意外死亡、心脑血管疾病死亡及呼吸系统疾病死亡水平上升，其对呼吸系统疾病死亡水平的影响存在滞后效应。

Objective To explore the short-term impact of ambient PM10 on daily non-accidental death, cardiovascular and respiratory death of residents in Beijing. Methods Mortality data of residents in Beijing during 2006 to 2009 were obtained from public health surveillance and information service center of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, contemporaneous data of average daily air concentration of PM10 ,SO2 ,NO2 were obtained from Beijing Environment Protection Bureau （year 2005 -2006） and public website of Beijing environmental protection （ year 2007 - 2009 ） , respectively, contemporaneous meteorological data were obtained from china meteorological data sharing service system. Generalized addietive model （GAM） of time serial analysis was applied. In additional to the control of confi）umling factors such as long- term trend, day of the week effect, meteorological factors, lag effect and the effects of other atmospheric pollutants were also analized. Results During year 2006 to 2009, the number of average daily non- accidental death, respiratory disease caused death, cardiovascular and eerebrovascular diseases caused death among Beijing residents were 140. 1,15.0,65.8 ,respeetively;eontemporaneous medians of average daily air concentration of PM10, SO2 , NO2 were 123.0,26. 0,58.0 μg/m^3 , respectively ; contemporaneous average atmosphere pressure,tempreture and relative humidity were 10. 1 kPa, 13.5 ℃ and 51.9% ,respectively. An exposure-response relationship between exposure to ambient PM20 and increased daily death number was found as every 10 μg/m^3 inerease in daily average eone.entration of PM,o, there was a 0. 1267% （95% CI： 0. 0824% -0. 1710% ） increase in daily non-accidental death of residents, 0. 1365% （95% CI：0. 0010%-0. 2720% ） increase in respiratory death and 0. 1239% （95% CI： 0.0589% - 0. 1889% ） increase ill cardiovascular death. Ambient PM10 had greatest influence on daily non-accidental and cardiovascular death of the same day, while its greatest influence on respiratory death occurred 5 clays later. Conclusion Tile ambient PM10 pollution increased daily non-accidental, respiratory disease eaused, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases caused deaths among residents in Beijing, and lag ellect existed as for the effect of ambient PM10 pollution on respiratory disease caused death.