增加黄金储备真的能优化储备资产结构吗?——基于中国数据的情景分析

May Increasing Gold Reserve Really Optimize the Asset Structure of Foreign Reserves?——A Scenario Analysis Based on China

随着我国近年来外汇储备规模的不断攀升,对外汇储备资产安全性的担忧以及优化储备资产配置成为学者们争相探讨的重要议题。其中,非常有影响力的一派观点认为,应当通过增持黄金、减持外汇储备的方法来优化我国的国际储备资产结构。本文基于现实数据,通过情景分析讨论了这一观点。结果表明,增持黄金储备能优化储备资产结构的论点过于武断。首先,二者之间此消彼长的关系并不在所有时期都成立;其次,黄金作为一种在国际市场上交易的贵金属,其价格的波动也是剧烈的;最后,时机的选取非常重要。这些因素都有可能导致新建立的储备资产不能兼顾"流动性、安全性和效益性"。

With the rapid accumulation of the foreign exchange reserves in China, researchers have paid special attention to the underlying uncertainty of the reserve and how to optimize the allocation of the reserve, among which one suggestion is very influential. According to the trade off between gold price and the value of US Dollar, they recommend to increase the holding of gold instead of US Dollar-denominated assets in order to improve the structure of the foreign reserve in China. Based on real-time-data scenario analysis, this paper finds that this assertion is premature. There are at least three reasons that it may not work for the rule of ＂liquidity, safety and efficiency＂ ： firstly, the tradeoff may not hold for every period; secondly, as a commodity traded in the international market, the fluctuation of the gold price is severe; thirdly, the timing is important as well.