展望未来20年中国经济发展格局

Looking Forward the Arrangement of China's Economic Development in the Future 20 Years

全球经济陷入疲软"新常态",中国经济"风景这边独好"。即使外部环境不好,内部反周期刺激的空间很大,中国经济仍然可以维持较高的增长。扩大内需仍应以投资为主,解决消费比重过低的办法在于改善一次分配,而不能过度强调二次分配。中国将会成为全球最大的经济体和贸易体,人民币终有一天要变成国际储备货币。但目前加速人民币国际化会扰乱中国金融秩序,不利于中国经济增长。当前中国经济政策的主要目标仍然必须是创造有利环境,保持内部相对稳定,再维持20年或更长时间的快速增长。

Global Economy fell into the fatigued and weak ＂new normal status＂; while China＇s economy is the ＂beautiful view here＂. Even with the unfavorable external environment and the large space of internal counter-cyclical stimulation, China＇ s economy will still maintain a high growth rate. We should depend more on investment, but not consumption. We should learn from the experience of overdue consumption of other advanced countries; method that can be used to solve the problem of low proportion of consumption should focus on improving the primary distribution, but not overly emphasizing the secondary distribution. China will become the biggest economic and trade entity; and RMB will definitely become the international reserve currency in the future. But, at present, accelerating the internationalization of RMB will disturb China＇s financial order and go against China＇s economic growth. The main target of China＇s prevailing economic policy will still be creating the favorable condition, maintaining the internal stability and maintaining the rapid growth rate in the future 20 or more years.