产业转移、外部失衡与中国的政策选择

Industry Transfer,External Imbalances and China's Policy Choices

20世纪中叶开始,全球范围内大致经历了4次大规模的产业转移浪潮,国际分工体系的结构和层次也逐步确立。20世纪80年代,随着中国融入这一体系,产业转移以及国内出口导向型政策致使中国迅速积累了大量的出口产能,对外需的习惯性依赖成为必然。与此同时,过去60年的产业转移使发达国家传统产业空心化,并进一步导致在后危机时代中国的出口供给过量与外需有限性的矛盾愈发突出,全球经济再平衡的痛苦过程将不可避免。在这种背景下,中国的战略选择应首先立足于顺应大潮流,继续推进中西部承接产业转移,拉动区域工业化和城市化发展,为全球经济再平衡冲击提供缓冲地带。从长期来看,中国应以重振内需为基本立足点,加快增长方式转型,加快自主创新步伐,重塑国家竞争优势。

There has been four waves of massive industry transfer in the worldwide since Mid-twentieth century, and the international division of labor structure and hierarchy have gradually been established. With integration into the system in 1980s, the industry transfer and the exports oriented policy lead China accumulate a large number of export capacities rapidly. Naturally the habit of dependence on external demand became necessary. At the same time, the transfer of industries over the past sixty years makes the hollow of traditional industries in developed countries and a difficult road to recovery. All of that further lead to conflict between China＇s over exports supplements and limit external demand in Post-crisis era. The rebalancing of the global economy will be inevitably painful. Therefore, China＇s strategic choice should base on the response to the first trend, continue to promote industry transfer from east to the Midwest, and drive the regional industrialization and urbanization, providing a buffer zone for the global economic rebalancing. In the long run, China should take reviving domestic demand as the basic starting point, speed up growth mode transformation, accelerate the pace of innovation, and reshape the country＇s competitive advantage.