土石坝洪水漫顶模糊风险分析

Analysis of Overtopping Fuzzy Risk of Earth-rock Dam

土石坝的安全性一直是备受关注的研究热点。洪水漫顶是影响大坝安全性的重要因素。对水库大坝洪水风险进行准确评估,可为保障水库大坝安全性提供理论依据。该文基于大坝漫顶风险分析理论,建立了漫顶失事模糊风险模型。并以新疆玛纳斯河夹河子水库为例,对其土石坝洪水漫顶模糊风险进行了评估,并得出主要结论:该水库大坝平均漫顶失事模糊风险率为5.02×10-3,超过了我国大坝风险评价标准,该坝的洪水漫顶破坏风险较大。

Earth rock dam safety has been the subject of much attention hotspot. Overtopping risk is the important factors in dam safety. The dam flood risk for accurate assessment of, for ensuring dam safety and provide a theoretical basis. In this paper based on the Dam Overtopping Risk analysis theory, set up on the basis of the overtopping failure fuzzy risk model. And take Xinjiang Manasi River Jiahezi reservoir as an example, the earth - rock dam overtopping risk were assessed, and the main conclusions ： the Reservoir Dam Overtopping failure average fuzzy risk rate of 5.02×10-3. Over China dam risk assessment standards, the Dam Overtopping failure risk.