随机模拟法与传统方法推求设计防洪库容优劣的初步研究

Comparison of the Traditonal Methods with the Flood Simulation Method to Calculate Design Flood Control Storage

在设定总体洪水随机模型的前提下 ,利用 Monte- Carlo方法对随机模拟法及传统方法推求设计防洪库容优劣作了初步对比研究。所考虑评价标准是设计防洪库容估计的不偏性及有效性 ,水库调洪方式采用削平头法 ,传统方法在推求设计洪水过程线时 ,考虑了同频率及同倍比两种放大法。计算结果初步表明 ,在模型形式正确的情况下 ,随机模拟法比传统方法能提高设计防洪库容的计算精度 ,同频率法推求设计防洪库容精度比同倍比法一般要好。

Assuming that the population model of flood stochastic process is known, the precison of design flood control storage calculated by the traditional and the flood simulative method is preliminarily compared. The criterion of the precison evaluation is unbiasness and efficiency of design flood control storge. In the traditional methods, two design flood hydrgraph enlarging methods are considered, one is same frequency method, the other is same multiple method. The Monte Carlo results shows that the precision of design flood control storage calculted by the flood simulation method is better than the traditional methods and the same frequency method is better than the same multiple method if the form of flood simulation model is correct.