林权变动对森林资源培育和木材供给的影响分析

Impacts Analysis of Forest Tenure Changes on Cultivation of Forest Resources and Wood Supply

基于林地配置和木材供给的计量经济学模型,利用7个南方县的面板数据进行实证分析。回归结果显示,经济发展对森林覆盖率产生正面的影响,人口压力对森林覆盖率有消极的影响,采伐等相关成本上升和实际利率提高会减少市场上商品材的供给。结果还显示,林权改革显著地增加了南方集体林区商品材供给,但由于样本数据观测期短,暂未发现林权改革增加南方集体林区森林覆盖率。

This paper provides an empirical analysis based on econometric models of forest land allocation and timber supply,and the panel data from seven counties in South China.Regression results show that economic development improves forest cover,population pressure effects negatively on forest cover,and timber supply reduces when the cost of harvest and the rate in real terms increase.Regression results also show that forest tenure reform stimulates timber product in southern collective forest,but there are no evidences about forest cover because of short sample time.