规模化猪场疫病传入风险分析模型的构建

Construction of risk analysis model of disease introduction in large-scale farms

疫病对猪场造成重大损失,是猪场发展的主要制约因素。为规范猪场管理,减少疫病,根据现今猪场疫病概况,以调查问卷及专家调查的方法确定疫病传入猪场的风险因素,再运用动物卫生风险分析技术模拟规模化猪场疫病传入的暴露模型,并构建风险评估数学模型,最后采取实例验证该模型。结果表明,该模型在定量评估猪场疫病发生风险可能性大小上是可行的。

Diseases cause significant economic losses in the pig farm,and it has been the major constraint for the development of pig farm.To minify diseases outbreak,the risk factors of disease introduction in the pig farm were determined by questionnaire and expert survey.A exposure model for disease introduction in large-scale farms was simulated using animal health risk analysis technology,and a risk assessment mathematical model was built.The model built in this study was verified feasible for quantitatively evaluating the possibility of the disease occurence.