摘要
该文使用中国70个大中城市1999年到2009年的面板数据,发现了房地产价格和地方政府财政收入之间的联系,并利用模型的稳健性验证了这种关系的存在;在使用工具变量回归方法解决房地产价格可能受到财政收入影响的内生性问题时发现,房地产价格波动1%会带来大约10%的地方政府财政收入的波动;使用政策的虚拟变量和房地产价格的交互项,发现这种关系是由于房地产行业于1999年取消福利分房制度而造成的。
By investigating the panel data of seventy big and medium-sized cities in China from year 1997 to 2009,this paper discovers the relationship between real estate price and local fiscal revenue and confirms the connection by investigating the robustness of the model.When we use instrumental variables regression to solve the endogenous character between real estate price and fiscal revenue,we find that 1% fluctuation in real estate price could result in about 10% fluctuation in local fiscal revenue.Using the virtual variable of policy and interaction item of real estate price,we conclude that the relation above can contribute to the termination of welfare housing system since 1999.
出处
《石河子大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2012年第2期77-86,共10页
Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
关键词
房地产
地方政府财政收入
工具变量回归
面板数据
real estate
local fiscal revenue
instrumental variable estimation
panel data
