军队人力资源专业结构需求预测模型研究

A Forecasting Model of Military Manpower Specialty Structure Demand

通过引入军队起点岗位与非起点岗位之间的"专业适应度",建立起专业对应矩阵。在此基础上按照"量出为入"的原则,建立"军队人力资源专业结构需求预测模型",预测出补充干部的最优专业结构,从而使每年补充岗位与退役岗位之间总的专业适应程度达到最大,以达到提高军队人才使用效益、降低培训改训成本、保持战斗力的目的。并以专业结构预测模型为核心设计了一种基于单位树的递归式专业结构预测模型,解决各单位退役、补充不均衡的情况下全军专业结构补充与交流问题,最后通过实例分析证明了上述模型、算法的有效性和优越性。

By importing ＂Specialty Fitness＂ between the primary posts and the non-primary posts in military,the specialty consistency array can be set up.In order to obtain the best specialty structure with regard to the accession and maximize the whole specialty fitness between the accession and the separation,the Forecasting Model of Specialty Structure for Military Manpower Demand（FMSSMMD）is given based on the rule of deciding accession according to separation.Thus,the efficiency of manpower using can be improved;the cost of training is also reduced,and the battle effectiveness will be kept.Furthermore,through regarding all units in military as a tree,a recursion algorithm founds on the FMSSMMD is designed to solve the accession and exchange problem among all units every year.Finally,an example is given to illustrate the efficiency and advantage of the above models and methods.