江苏省粮食生产与化肥使用环境安全研究

Research on the Relationship between Chemical Fertilization and Grain Production in Jiangsu Province

通过分析江苏省1979～2009年粮食产量与化肥使用量的关系,探讨江苏省化肥的环境安全使用量,提供利于环境安全的施肥措施。研究表明,江苏省1979～19891、990～19992、000～2009年3个不同时段的粮食产量和化肥使用量的相关系数分别是0.862、0.835、0.671,两者的相关性明显降低。31年来,江苏省粮食产量的年平均增长率是1.1%,化肥使用的年平均增长率是4.1%。目前,化肥使用量大大地超出了环境安全使用量。通过对比分析,认为江苏土地平均化肥使用量不宜超过600 kg/hm2,以后可以通过改进施肥措施提高粮食产量。

By analyzing the relationship between the grain production and the chemical fertilization amount in Jiangsu Province during 1979 - 2009, the amount of chemical fertilization was explored based on the environmental security, and the fertilization practices beneficial to envi- ronmental security were provided. The results showed that the correlation coefficients between grain production and chemical fertilization were 0. 862, 0. 835 and 0.671 during the three periods of 1979 - 1999, 1990 - 1999 and 2000 - 2009, which was obviously restricted by the dimin- ishing return rate of lands. During the 31 years, the grain production in Jiangsu Province grew at an annual rate of 1.1% , while the fertiliza- tion amount increased at an annual rate of 4.1%. The present chemical fertilization amount was greatly above that required by environmental safety. Through comparative analysis, the average chemical fertilization amount in Jiangsu Province should not be above 600 kg/hm2, and the ~rain yield can be increased through the improved fertilization practices.