中等收入陷阱的国际实证比较及对中国启示

Empirical Comparison of Middle-income Trap and Implications for China

本文通过实证对比跨越和落入中等收入陷阱两类国家在人均GDP达到3000美元到突破1万美元期间经济社会方面的差异及演变过程,给出落入中等收入陷阱国家的判断依据,揭示中等收入陷阱的实质是效率陷阱,发现落入中等收入陷阱的成因主要有教育投入不足、失业率高、消费层次低、金融配置低及贫富差距过大等。同时,对中国落入陷阱的可能性进行判断分析,并就中国如何跨越中等收入陷阱给出一些建议。

Through the empirical contrast between the two kinds of countries of crossing and falling into the trap of the medium income during their GDP per capita in $ 3000 to $10000, this paper reveals the essence of the medium income trap is efficiency trap, finds that the main causes of middle - income trap are in- adequate investment in education, high unemployment, low levels of consumption, and low financial configuration and too large income gap between the rich and the poor. Meanwhile, we give the possibility analysis of China falling into the middle -income trap and some suggestions on how China across the trap.